How to Win at Soccer Betting

Check Goal Differential

One of the easiest things a bettor can do before choosing on a team is check out all of their stats, but more specifically their goal differential. In my opinion this statistic is the most important in determining a winner and in some cases an over/under bet.

Goal differential is a fairly easy statistic to explain. For example, if Manchester United plays Arsenal in the first game of the season and wins 2-0, their goal differential becomes +2 and Arsenal’s becomes -2. Manchester United goes on to beat Bolton by a score of 3-1 their goal differential increases to +4 because they scored 2 more goals than their opponent. Over the lifespan of a season the team’s that are in the highest positive goal differential are typically the team’s atop a league table or a tournament group.

This is why paying close attention to GD (goal differential) will often prove beneficial. The downside to this plan is that you will not typically win large amounts in moneyline betting by checking GD because the team with a higher GD will probably be the favorite. But over a long period of time checking goal differential will help you win on a regular basis.

Look For Injuries etc.

When betting on a particularly strong team, you are placing your bet with the assumption that the team is at full strength. To make sure you have all of your bases covered check potential starting lineups and injuries. If Manchester United’s star player is out because of injury the team itself may suffer, whether it be conceding goals or inability to score. This same sort of thing applies when the transfer window is open because during that time period players are changing teams left and right.

Check How Teams Match-Up

If you bet on a team over another because you think the one is “better” than the other, you must understand what you mean by better. It is more important to see how teams match-up with one another. For instance in a match against two very high powered attacks you can analyze just how many goals these teams score and use that information to place a knowledgeable over/under wager. And on the other side of that example, if one team is very attacking-oriented and they are matched up against a very defensive team, you may not as quickly assume a very large amount of goals. Even the smallest information about a team can help you place an appropriate wager on any betting option.

In addition to how entire teams match up, you can even go as far as to analyze individual players. A team like Manchester United, who has a scoring machine named Wayne Rooney, is more likely than most to score goals. Having that one individual player score two or even three goals can be the difference in a match.

Be Aware of Home Field Advantage

This may sound stupid, or even blatantly obvious but knowing who the home team is, and even further, know about the home team’s fans can be a major determinant in a match. When a small team from a small home stadium visits a major club the shock can be intense. This is evident in FA Cup and Carling Cup matches where lower tier teams visit top flight clubs. Even some regular season Premier League matches have teams whose home stadium holds barely 10,000 people visiting a stadium that holds 65,000; that can make a significant difference in how well players and coaches are able to communicate.

Make Obvious Bets

For beginning bettors it may be smart start out by eliminating as much risk as possible by making bets on the obvious winner, even if it earns only a small return. The good thing about soccer around the world is that there are teams in the same league that are completely mismatched. Look at the Scottish Premier League for example, when a powerhouse club like Celtic hosts a much lower-skilled opponent like Inverness the match result is typically predictable. Of course there are upsets but they are very hard to plan for, whether you are betting soccer in the USA or elsewhere.

Another place where making obvious bets is going to be generally safe is in the early stages of UEFA Champions League play. This is where teams like Barcelona are matched up with teams like Legia Warsaw of Poland. In this example I think it is fair to say that even Legia fans would be aware of the likely outcome. Of course as the tournament advances the games get closer and your risk is going to be higher.

You do not have to pretend to be an expert as soon as you begin placing wagers. Make some small scale “easy” bets and get a feel for betting on soccer. Remember that even a little bit of pregame knowledge can prove to be infinitely beneficial.